Let’s mine Statcast data (via the Baseball Savant website) for some more early season takeaways. We’re right at the point of making some decisions in 12-team leagues where you can basically trade with the waiver wire. Changes can be warranted if the small sample of data is heavy enough (there’s not just the size of the sample, but the weight of it).
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This week we’re focusing on three things in one model: swinging at strikes (the Freddie Freeman stat, basically), not chasing pitches out of the zone and isolated power (slugging minus average, a proxy for homers).
We don’t expect many takeaways because the good players should obviously be good and, therefore highly rostered, and the bad ones should be guys we don’t want. We can also use this to confirm that early-season surprises, both good and bad, track — that the underlying skills are good and bad.
Here’s the Top 10 when we weight all three of our stats equally and just rank them:
So what does this tell us? Well, Chapman, Kelenic, Murphy, Gorman and Outman have great approaches. Kelenic’s ratio of swinging at strikes and chasing out of the zone is 3.2:1. Last year, it was 2.4:1 — a huge difference. That’s 17th this year and about 85th last year. Kelenic is a fundamentally different and much better hitter.
We need to talk about Wade, who is 3% rostered. Why is he so low? His expected ISO is nearly .300, a big-time number, and his ratio of swinging at strikes to not chasing is great. He plays enough. He has more walks than Ks. He’s an automatic pickup if you need an outfielder. Just the walks and the Ks say that if you’re skeptical about my stats (but they correlate with Ks and walks, of course).
James Outman is also for real, meaning there is an explanation for his success beyond dumb luck like we saw with Francisco Cordero. Gorman is a hold for sure or a buy if for some reason his manager doesn’t believe him or has him benched (remember, managers get annoyed when they have a player producing on their bench and a more public player starting ahead of him.) Bregman is a buy if his managers believe his actual stats — a major change for the better seems imminent.
As we work down the list, I want to focus on players who are available widely in Yahoo leagues and thus probably in yours.
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No. 14 is Jorge Soler, who has been recommended before. His actual OPS+ is 34% above league average. He shouldn’t be just 26% rostered. His Ks are way down and his walks are solid. His expected ISO/power is ninth best.
Mike Yastrzemski has been good before and then really dropped off last year. He’s flashed above-average power and amazing discipline in not chasing pitches. His first three years, he averaged 30 homers per 162 games and hit over .250. He’s hitting better than that now, in reality and in our stats. The walks haven’t been there in points/OBP leagues, but I suspect they’re coming. He should be way more than 22% rostered.
Rodolfo Castro is just 13% rostered, is playing every day and has a .853 OPS. His power has been very good. He has 19 homers in 407 career at-bats. He walks enough. The Ks aren’t terrible. He’s Top 30 on our list. I will bang the table that Castro is worth starting in all formats. If he shows this is a fluke, just drop him in a month. But give him a month.
Finally, let’s talk about three big-name hitters widely rostered who our model hates. And Javier Báez is last so that’s proof of concept for a hitter you want no part of.
Andrés Giménez is 180th of 183. Yet he’s rostered almost everywhere. I get he steals bases. He’s chasing like crazy — 174th in that stat. He’s just a mess. There has been almost no power, and we thought that was developing last year. He was an all-star but is nowhere near that now. He hasn’t earned this level of loyalty that he’s getting now in our game.
Nolan Arenado? What the hell? He’s 177th overall. His chase rate is 168th. The power has dried up. He’s been outperforming foundational stats for a while, not that they were bad, but they certainly weren’t what we’d expect from someone with his fantasy production. His strikeout rate now is double what it was in 2022 and his walks are down. I’m not saying to drop him, but I am saying that if someone will trade you 90 cents on the dollar, jump at it. He’s the rare sell low for me. But I would draw the line at 90% of draft-day value. Try to sell the brand.
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Trea Turner is on our list of problem players. I’m shocked by this. I’m holding here, firmly. But there is reason to worry. He’s 168h on the list. He’s chasing like crazy, even worse than last year and 35-40% more than his peak. His zone contact is also way down, from better than average to terrible (74.4% vs. league average of 82% and his career average of 84.7%). There are too many PAs now for all this to be meaningless.
Here’s the chart through Wednesday. But I caution you that I cull this data. The chart is just the starting point. Players who are highly rated and who are ignored were ignored for a reason. But I’m giving you everything for transparency’s sake.
(Top photo: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports)
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