It’s been roughly three months since Mike Elias left his role as assistant general manager with the Houston Astros to become executive vice president and general manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Elias, his wife, Alexandra, and his 1-year-old daughter, Evelyn, are in the process of moving to a newly purchased home in the Baltimore area.
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However, the focus right now for the 36-year-old Northern Virginia native and Yale University graduate is his first spring training with the Orioles. He’ll be at the Ed Smith Complex in Sarasota, Fla., on Tuesday when pitchers and catchers report and a new Orioles era kicks off.
He sat down with The Athletic recently and discussed a myriad of topics, including his recent trip to the Dominican Republic, international scouting challenges, advanced analytics, his front office, personnel moves and the 2019 Orioles. Here’s what he had to say.
You recently were in the Dominican Republic for several days. What was the purpose of the trip and what did you gain from it?
It was a very productive trip. In terms of reasons why I went, there’s a number of them. First of all, I don’t think it is a secret that we are launching, essentially, a new scouting program in Latin America. We’re announcing a new presence for the Orioles. We’re going to be more aggressive in terms of the dollar investments we make down there, the profile players that we bring into the organization. We have so much work to do on that front. Koby Perez (senior director of international scouting) and I need to hire staff and to improve relationships and profiles with the baseball community in Latin America. And, really for any organization, periodic visits by the general manager sends a very strong message in support of a thriving Latin American program. But, for our situation in particular, Koby and I thought it was important to do that.
I also come from a scouting background, and I wanted to see some players. And with the way the new major league rules are set up now, January of 2019 is the first time you can invite players for the 2020 signing period to come work out at your complex. So, we had a great workout. A lot of young players from the 2020 class, Koby, (international scout) Calvin Maduro, our local scouts and I watched a group of probably 35 free-agent players who will become eligible in 2020, so we got some good looks at those guys.
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And maybe most importantly is I wanted to visit our complex. I wanted to visit our (Dominican) coaching staff. I hadn’t met them yet. We had had a conference call on the phone, but I wanted to see our operations first-hand. So, really, it was a combination of all of those things. And Koby and I did some work around the island, touring some other complexes, visiting some people, having some meetings. It was really good. It was a good three days.
From what I’ve been told, the Orioles’ Dominican complex needs a lot of work if the organization is going to compete with other organizations for top players. What did you see facility-wise there, and what needs to change?
Yeah, we need to do a lot of work. There’s no question. We will do it. I don’t know what the exact outcome of that is going to be right now. I don’t necessarily want to get into plans. But it’s a huge priority for me. We’re going to need to be amongst the upper half of teams in terms of environment and development for Latin players being that we are a below-average market size for Major League Baseball. These are the type of areas that you have to be investing in and finding an edge in in order to compete at the major-league level. So, we looked around. We looked at some other examples from large-market teams and small-market teams to kind of get the idea of the type of operation we want to build. But it is going to be a lot of work. It will take some time.
Do you have a timetable on when you’d like to see physical and structural improvements made in the Dominican?
As soon as possible. We are going to try to make improvements as quickly as possible. But we’re also going to dream big a little bit and try to come up with a perfect solution. But this is something that we’re just getting started, so I don’t have a lot of concrete plans right now.
Orioles general manager Mike Elias, right, and manager Brandon Hyde will begin their first season running the club. (Patrick Semansky / Associated Press)Do you believe you have the financial support from the organization to make significant changes?
Yeah. We know that this is going to be critical to our success going forward. So, whatever we need to do, I’m pretty confident we’ll be able to do it.
Would you say the Orioles’ Dominican facility ranks toward the bottom of big-league teams?
Well, I haven’t seen all 30. I’ve just heard that it’s nowhere near up to the standards that I want for the future of our development. Some of it is stuff that we can change in the short-term. Other things will take longer-term investments. It’s in a really good spot. We’ve got a really good landlord, Junior Naboa, who is good to work with and is an experienced landlord and there are a lot of good, neighboring teams. So, there are some positives. But we just want to have better development conditions for the players.
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How much do you think the quality of facilities in the Dominican affects a player’s decision to choose an organization? Could it be a tiebreaker if the money is about the same?
I’ve never really heard that come in to play, but I haven’t been scouting Latin America for 15 years or anything. But I think it’s very rare when the money is a tie. Usually, there is a higher bid. But it certainly helps the outcome of the development of the players that you do sign. Because there are very real advantages of having great nutrition, great weight room, good living conditions, all of the above.
What’s one easy fix right now that can be made quickly and inexpensively to better your Latin program?
We’ll try to introduce some technology. We’re getting TrackMan (multi-data tracker) units installed as we speak. That’s a pretty major investment. I’m excited. I think we are going to get that in in time for minor league spring training in the Dominican. And we will introduce different strength and conditioning technologies, bat sensors, new weight equipment. So, there are things like that we can do very quickly in the near term.
Will the TrackMan data technology be used any differently in the Dominican than in the majors or in the minors?
We have used it very successfully for player development, and so it can even help in the Dominican, even for that age group.
Since we are on the Dominican, what is the latest with the Orioles’ pursuit of Yolbert Sanchez, the Cuban shortstop playing in the Dominican who is now free to sign with any MLB team?
All I can say is that we are in a position where we are on top of everything. So, Koby and the staff that we have and me, we’re looking at every avenue. We are sitting on a large pile of international (slot) pool money. As I’ve said, I don’t expect us to spend it all or even close to all of it (by June), but we are looking for every opportunity to do so and do so in a wise way. So, I think it goes without saying that as high-profile Cuban free agents or other international free agents suddenly become available after (last year’s) July 2 signing period, we are gonna be all over it in terms of vetting it.
Are there other similar players that you are monitoring that could become available in the next few months?
You never really know until it happens. But, that said, there are typically some rumblings, and I haven’t really heard much about another wave of Cubans coming soon. But we’ll see. It could change.
Is it your sense that Sanchez will sign before the next period opens in July (and slot bonuses reset)?
I don’t know. I don’t have any insight into any particular player’s situation.
And nothing further on Sanchez and the Orioles at this point? There’s been a report saying at least one team has already made an offer for him.
There are a lot of rumors coming out nationally. Suffice it to say, we are on top of any situation like this.
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What is your take on mining talent in Venezuela, given both the Orioles’ lack of involvement/success there (they’ve never signed a Venezuelan amateur who has made it to the majors with the Orioles) and the volatile political situation in that country?
It’s hugely important. Just by pure numbers, it’s the third-largest baseball country. But the players there tend to be a little different than Dominican players. You tend to get (certain) skill positions, particularly catcher. They come out of Venezuela in greater numbers than the Dominican. They’re a little bit more polished coming out of Venezuela than the Dominican, because they play organized youth baseball there as opposed to just sort of trying out all the time. So, there’s a lot of really special talents coming out of there, and if you are not operational in that market, you’re going to miss out on any chance to get these guys. So, it is very important. People like me have a hard time traveling there to scout right now, Americans, but Koby has experience going there. He’s comfortable going there, although the situation has gotten a little worse recently. Hopefully, that loosens up. Major League Baseball has done a lot of really good things recently to facilitate players coming out of Venezuela to be showcased to major-league scouts. So, even without a robust ground operation in VZ, which we don’t have now, but we will have soon, you can still pluck players from there using the events that Major League Baseball has put in place.
What is a robust ground operation in Venezuela in your opinion?
Anywhere from two to five scouts. When I left Houston, we had two scouts and a video guy. And it’s not really as important the number of scouts, especially these days, but the quality of your scouts, how on top of things they are, how organized they are, the communication coming out of there. But I do think it is a country in which you need full-time operatives.
Is there any other country besides the Dominican and Venezuela that you view that way?
The DR and Venezuela, it is probably not optional. The other countries, anything that you have is advantageous, but as you make difficult budget decisions, you might have to decide whether we go with a fifth scout in the Dominican or a scout in some small country in South America that’s an emerging market. That’s just the type of things that different teams are doing differently. So, I think outside of those (the Dominican and Venezuela), you will see inconsistencies across the 30 major league teams on how they are staffed.
Do you have a number in mind for your Dominican staffing?
I don’t want to put it out there, because we’re just going to kind of see how things evolve. I’m a big believer in who you get and where they live and what all they’re capable of doing dictates numbers rather than vice versa.
The Orioles recently signed Nathan Karns to a minor-league contract. (Troy Taormina/USA Today)You had mentioned previously that one-year deals with free agents this offseason are likely your ceiling right now. You did that last week with pitcher Nathan Karns. Do you expect that kind of addition — major-league signings — to happen much more for the Orioles in the next few weeks?
I expect things to be pretty minor between now and into spring training. A big reason for that is, while there are ways to improve this team in the near term, clearly, we have to keep our eye on the ball. And part of that is not blocking playing time for young, controllable players that we have and that we have a chance to have for a very long time and who might be part of the next playoff team here in Baltimore. So, the degree to which I can avoid clogging up playing time for some of these guys that we really have got our eye on is very important.
Now, when it comes to pitching, there’s always innings to go around. We’ve got possibilities in the rotation right now. We’ve got possibilities in the bullpen. Nate Karns is someone that we view, in particular, as a huge talent upside for a number of reasons. Obviously, there is some injury risk with him. He didn’t pitch at all last year. Even the year prior he was banged up. But we waited and we looked at the value and the upside with his talent, and, just looking at things in total, we felt it was a worthwhile risk to take. And, if everything works out, he’s under control the following year as well. So, we think it makes sense for us for a lot of reasons. But I don’t anticipate any kind of free-agent signing frenzy here at the end. We’ve got to keep our eyes on the guys that we have in the organization and getting them better.
So, you anticipate any future signings to be of the minor-league variety?
I think it’s more likely minor leagues unless something changes. We want to get a mix in spring training that we feel like we’ve got a good group to compete for each position. I think as you’ve seen from some of our activities this winter, we’ve tried to make some minor moves in terms of improving our defensive options and adding some versatility on the roster. We’re certainly keeping our eyes opened and are assessing anything that becomes available, but at this point, I can’t say that something’s definitely going to happen.
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Have you found Baltimore to be a hard sell for one-year pitcher deals, given the division and the ballpark? It’s something that has been an issue in the past.
No, I haven’t heard those concerns from anyone. I think people know there are a lot of opportunities here and it’s a fun division to play in, even though it’s a challenging division. And while it has been a hitter’s ballpark at times over the years, it’s a really nice ballpark to play in. So, I don’t see that as any kind of challenge for us.
When you talk to the representatives of free agents, do you bring up the possibility of those players being dealt in July if they have value and if the Orioles, as expected, are struggling?
Sometimes that’s implied and sometimes we talk about it. Some of these veteran free agents — they are looking for opportunity, but they also want to get to the playoffs. If they think they’re coming into a team that if they play well has a chance to trade them (to a contender) — I mean, it’s much easier to predict who is going to the playoffs on July 31 than it is on February 1 — so sometimes that can be a positive.
Why sign Karns to a major-league deal, and do you see him in the rotation or as a reliever/swingman?
I think either one of those. We are gonna see how he ramps up, He didn’t throw any innings last year, so we’re going to have to make a decision on how many we feel he can throw and how much he can be stretched out. And I think that the thing with him is that he has the potential to join the rotation if things go really well toward the end of spring training. But, also, obviously, if we need to transition him with some kind of bullpen role, shorter stints, he can do that, too. The reason that we went after him is that, in terms of our scouting and our analytics, he kinds of fits the bill for what we are looking for in a pitcher.
You watched Karns throw a bullpen session before signing him?
It was an open workout in the Dallas area at a facility he has been throwing at, and he threw for our scouts. The velocity was good. There’s a risk, but we’re just gonna have to see what happens. I think there were about 25 teams (there) from what I was told.
You have built some depth this offseason with some minor-league signings. Are you comfortable with the talent level heading into the spring?
We feel like what we have is sufficient for the plan that we have going into camp. That said, if there is depth presented to us and it’s affordable for us and it makes sense with part of our organizational strategy, we might add that depth before position players report or maybe even after that, I don’t know. It’s something we are tackling in kind of an opportunistic mode rather than putting ourselves under pressure to do something.
Austin Wynns is going to get a chance to win the catching job in spring training. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)What’s your take on the club’s current catching situation, with inexperienced big-leaguers Austin Wynns and Chance Sisco on the 40-man roster and a few veterans on minor-league deals?
It’s going to be a competition in camp for those two spots in terms of breaking camp. I like the mix that we have with two young guys that we feel like have a long-term future or could have a long-term future with Wynns and Sisco. But the reality is they don’t have a lot of experience catching at the major-league level. They are still developing in a lot of ways, and that’s a position where we need to have, literally, a defensive backstop there for the young pitchers and just for the stability of the team. So, if it ends up being two veterans breaking camp, great. If it ends up being one veteran and one of the younger guys, great. If it ends up being two of the younger guys, it means that we felt like they were ready. So, the good thing I feel like is that we are going to have all three of those options at our disposal.
What’s your current plan for Opening Day shortstop? Do you expect it to be Jonathan Villar or could it be one of the Rule 5 players you brought in?
We wanted options. This camp is going to be a competition. It’s a fresh start, new general manager, new manager, bunch of new coaches, new eyes. I think players are going to come in with sort of a fresh outlook on things and recognizing the opportunities. So, we want to get our own evaluation of who our best defensive shortstop is.
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I am familiar with Villar, both personally and obviously following him since he left Houston. I know he is athletic. I know he has the physical tools for shortstop. So, I view him as a shortstop option, whether he ends up being the best one, defensively on our team, or the Opening Day shortstop, I don’t know. But I think the overwhelming odds are right now, what he’s done offensively and with his versatility, he’s going to be a starter at one of our two middle-infield spots early in the season, assuming everything goes smoothly in camp.
How important is solidifying the up-the-middle positions for you as you build a team?
It’s important. I’m consumed with thinking about it. We’ve got to work within the options that are available for us. Right now, as we are combing the waiver wires and making minor signings, you might have to pick between a player that’s really good offensively and poor defensively or vice versa. Really good defensively and weaker offensively.
The reality is they wouldn’t be available on the waiver wire if they were good at both those things. So, at this stage, we are kind of focusing on the defensive end of it because we want solid defense back out there for our pitchers. Those are critical positions. And I think as we move forward and as we grow and as we pick high in the draft and get into a position where we’re able to invest a little more heavily and directly into the major-league roster, we might be able to target more well-rounded players. But this is going to be a gradual process, and we are going to make every type of incremental improvements in the middle of the diamond as we can as we go.
Concerning the June draft, two of the most talked-about candidates to be the first pick overall are Texas high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman, two, up-the-middle players. Is there a tiebreaker, position-wise, in your mind?
It’s going to be whatever player we feel the best about. These picks, while you are picking high, they are hard. While you could mess them up, it’s also a good opportunity. So, to add something into the decision mix where you are going with a certain demographic, it can be unwise. I think if you look at the picks we made in Houston, they were across the board as far as demographics.
We took a high school, 17-year-old shortstop from Puerto Rico (Carlos Correa), probably one of the riskiest picks you could make. And, literally, when he was making his (major-league) debut, we took another shortstop from college that was going to be a quick-to-the-major-leagues guy (Alex Bregman), and we didn’t worry about it because we wanted to make sure we took the player that we felt the best about at that time. We figured we’d sort out the roster issues later. You figure it out. The important thing is getting the talent right.
How involved are you going to be with the actual scouting of the No. 1 overall pick, and will that pursuit take you away from Camden Yards for a significant chunk of 2019?
Definitely, with the 1-1 (pick) and even further down in the draft, it’s not going to be a full-time thing for me. It will be more April and May, and I have confidence in Brad Ciolek, who is running the (scouting) department and the scouts that we have to provide the evaluations and the info we’re going to need on these guys. But, certainly, with us picking No. 1, I don’t think there is any general manager in the last 15 years that hasn’t gone out and seen those players personally, especially one with a scouting background. And, just our draft in general, is going to be important.
Today, with cellphones and texts and emails and everything, it doesn’t take you away from the business of running the team if you are out on the road watching a minor-league affiliate or on the scouting trips. So, the draft is going to be a big part of my late-spring months is my expectation.
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After dismissing scouting director Gary Rajsich and player development director Brian Graham, you did not officially replace them with anyone, choosing instead of have Kent Qualls, minor-league operations director, and Brad Ciolek, assistant scouting director, oversee the respective operations. That’s an unusual decision, since those spots are normally considered top lieutenants in an organization. What is your thinking there?
Look, we made some significant changes in the leadership of the scouting and player development departments. It was my, and our, assessment, while there has been some good work done over the years, this system is not where we needed it to be to achieve our long-term goals. So, we made the decision to make some changes.
Sig (Mejdal, assistant GM, analytics) and I and Chris Holt (minor-league pitching coordinator) are coming from an (Astros) organization that recently has had a tremendous amount of success in this space, so we have some very specific ideas of what we want to do. And in order to install those ideas fully, to implement those ideas fully, we recognize it’s going to have some hands-on involvement from us, even though it might be a little extra than you might normally get from a general manager or an assistant general manager.
Kent and Brad are both highly competent guys that are doing a great job running the departments on a day-to-day basis. They both are experienced; Kent, in particular. He is the director of minor-league operations. He can run a farm system. And while we are introducing some curricular changes from the pitching and hitting sides — or we will — it doesn’t necessarily mean that Sig or I need to stay up at night worrying about who to promote to (replace) the guy that rolled his ankle in Bowie last night and things like that.
So, there’s a balancing act in terms of direct involvement and sort of philosophical oversight. And in terms of the long-term structure and leadership of those departments, it’s really important. I think we’ll see what happens, we’ll see how it goes with the people that we have. And I will keep thinking about it and see who around the industry might make sense if we decide to bring in some external talent right now. But it wasn’t a decision that we felt we needed to rush or wanted to rush in the middle of the winter.
Your regime is obviously focused on using analytics to enhance production throughout the system. But will you be using analytics in determining which amateurs to draft or sign? And, if so, how, given the lack of familiarity and/or research available?
I think the best way to couch it is the more objective information you have about a player, the more statistics (you have) and the closer they get to the major leagues, the less supplementary info you might need to get the evaluation right. And, as you go all the way down to the Dominican free agent who is 14 years old, there is very little analytically that comes into the equation there. It’s almost 100 percent human evaluations.
So, it’s kind of a sliding scale. And when it comes to the draft, there are differences across player populations. So, if you are a high school hitter, we don’t have a ton analytically to throw at them. We have some little things here and there, but it’s not a driving factor in the decision-making as it is with a college pitcher from a large conference where we not only have their statistics and we know what they mean, but we have a lot of video and we have a lot of TrackMan data now. So, it depends on the player populations more than others and it is a blend depending on the information available on each player population.
The variables are also much different in the amateur ranks as well, correct?
Yeah, we don’t use high school statistics in any methodological kind of way. We look at them, but we don’t have a weaponized model for high school statistics.
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One of the terms being talked about within the organization is pitch optimization — choosing the right pitches, when and where to throw them, etc. Could you explain exactly what that means to you and the philosophy behind it?
Well, I don’t want to explain exactly what it entails, and it will take us a little while to get fully up to the capabilities that we’re accustomed to. But, really, we have (more) information now. Let me step back. Before these radar-tracking devices existed, teams did this with humans charting pitches. And it was subjective. You could make some good insights, but the amount of data you had, and the veracity of the insights, were less precise than what they are today.
So now we have all this information and we analyze it in proprietary ways, and it gives us an idea of how the pitcher and hitter should try to attack one another. Other teams are using it. It won’t just be us. So, this is a race that we’re trying to get caught up in, but it has changed the game, and it is something that we have to do.
And Chris Holt, for sure, has used it with a lot of success at the minor-league level, not just in terms of optimizing pitch usage, but also improving the pitches themselves. And Doug Brocail is somebody who knows what we like to do because he was involved in the early days of this program in Houston. So, I think adding him will be a familiar eye and ear for the type of work that we’re doing. And (Brocail) having already established sort of a working relationship with Sig is perfect for us.
Is there a similar type of analytical development or philosophy as far as hitting is concerned that you will be utilizing?
There is stuff that we have regarding hitting that we didn’t have before thanks to technology. And particularly in the space of, ‘You’re swinging a lot at this pitch. You probably shouldn’t be, you’re not doing well with this pitch.’ But beyond that, I’d say it’s an area where if you’re comparing the arms race between pitchers and hitters, there’s more at the pitchers’ disposal right now and it’s probably feeding into a lot of the strikeout trends that are going on around the game.
I know you guys have been looking to fill more analytics department positions. Where are you on that?
I don’t know that we are at the point to announce those hires or that we will announce them or that they are going to show up on the team website anytime soon. But we are making them right now. We’ve got ducks in the row of analytics people joining the organization as soon as the spring and, likewise, on the scouting front, particularly internationally. There are some additions ongoing right now behind the scenes.
What about scouting in the United States, whether it be hires for advance scouting, pro scouting or amateur scouting?
We have people here that are good and are capable in doing those jobs. This is not a normal time of the baseball hiring calendar. We have a couple of scouting vacancies that we are filling as we speak, and those will be added. But this just isn’t the time of year where you can just call up another team and hire away somebody. So that’s not happening right now.
Brady Anderson will be heavily involved in the Orioles’ nutritional program moving forward. (Michael Owens / USA Today)Now that you have had some time with club vice president Brady Anderson, the highest-profile holdover from the previous regime, do you have a better sense of what you want his role and specific duties to be?
Brady has been involved in a lot of things here over the years, but he’s particularly been a driving force behind the nutritional programs and the strength and conditioning programs here, which have vastly improved under his watch. So, his involvement there is something I’m leaning on a lot. We haven’t been in camp yet, and so we’ll see how things evolve and progress going forward. But he’s been keeping up his work in the training space very heavily.
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It’s been about three months since you took this job. What has most surprised you or what weren’t you fully prepared for?
I was warned about this, but there’s a lot of demands on your time outside of the work that you need to do. So, while I could spend every minute working on baseball operations, there are a lot of duties of a general manager in terms of public relations and other aspects of the business side of the company, talking to people in the community and things like that that are very important. But you have to figure out a way to balance that with all the work that you are doing. I was warned about that being probably the biggest shift even coming from the position in Houston where I was running two departments and going full-time like that. But that’s probably the most jarring part of stepping into a position this large.
Flip side. What’s been the most positive or pleasant surprise since you came on board?
We’ve got good people here in place. And if they weren’t here, I don’t know what we’d be doing. We’ve got good people in the front office, we’ve got good coaches and scouts, and these guys are going to get us where we need to go. And so, coming in and having people that right away you work well with and know what they are doing, it’s enormous.
What are you most looking forward to seeing in spring training the next few weeks?
I’m looking forward to seeing the talent, the energy. I’m kind of a scout at heart, and while I can watch video and I can read stats and I can hear other people talking about players, but to get that full feel where you see them yourself and you have that mental image and you talk to the players, I’m more looking forward to that. But I know that there’s going to be a lot of energy and excitement and opportunity. Brandon (Hyde) and the staff that he has brought in, they are very energized, and they are already breaking down video and talking to players about things they want to work on. It’s Florida and it’s baseball and the bat cracks and the sun’s out and it’s a brand-new day with the Orioles, so I can’t wait to get down there.
(Top photo of Orioles spring training complex: Jonathan Dyer / USA Today)
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